Change the assumptions
Illustrative shocks, not forecasts. Editing a preset customizes it.
Where to find it & what to check
Relative reduction in average nightly rate. Applied together with occupied-night decline.
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Relative decline, not percentage points. A 20% decline turns 60% occupancy into 48%.
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Raises fixed costs for both strategies and STR per-night costs. Revenue-based percentages and fixed debt do not change.
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Applied to scheduled rent before vacancy/nonpayment losses.
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Added to base vacancy loss and capped at 12 months total. Losses are smoothed monthly; this is not an eviction timeline.
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Additional cash expenditure in the downside scenario. Separate from the internal replacement allocation.
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Choose the month the modeled repair is paid from the reserve.
Record a source or next actionBase year versus your scenario
| Annual breakdown | STR | LTR |
|---|---|---|
| STR: base cash flow | $11,738 | — |
| STR: stressed cash flow before repair | -$5,641 | — |
| LTR: base cash flow | — | -$12,410 |
| LTR: stressed cash flow before repair | — | -$17,641 |
| Additional one-time repair | $7,500 | $7,500 |
| Scenario cash flow after repair | -$13,141 | -$25,141 |
| Change from base | -$24,879 | -$12,730 |
A 10% rate decline and 20% relative decline in paid nights reduce STR room revenue by 28.0%. Fixed costs and your fixed-rate loan payment still need to be paid.
What this test does—and doesn’t tell you
It calculates the consequence of your inputs. It does not assign a likelihood, predict a worst case, verify legal eligibility or establish a maximum loss.
Percentage-based costs fall with revenue. The cost shock applies to fixed operating costs and STR per-night expenses. Loan principal and interest are unchanged.
Inspect monthly cash reserves